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Today I talk with super forecaster, Noel Goodman. Noel helps to predict genocide, wars, and elections. He does this for fun and doesn’t get paid for it.
PoP Culture meet Noel Goodman
Noel Goodman works in a northern Michigan insurance company as an analyst. At night, he forecasts on world affairs, like genocide and Russia’s involvement in Crimeia. As a part of The Good Judgment Project (GJP), which is a project “harnessing the wisdom of the crowd to forecast world events”.
It was co-created by Philip E. Tetlock (author of Superforecasting and of Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?), decision scientist Barbara Mellers, and Don Moore. It was a participant in the Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) program of the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) in the United States. Predictions are scored using Brier scores. The top forecasters in GJP are “reportedly 30% better than intelligence officers with access to actual classified information.”
Resources from the Podcast
The Early Warning Project
The Good Judgement Project
Meet Joe Sanok
Joe Sanok, MA, LLP, LPC, NCC is one of the world’s leading private practice consultants. He is the owner of the Traverse City counseling practice, Mental Wellness Counseling. Joe helps counselors to start private practices and grow them.
